Maple Leafs Better Get More for Mitch Marner Than Seth Jones

The trade would be Maple Leafs’ winger Mitch Marner for Blackhawks’ defenseman Seth Jones, forward Nick Foligno and a first-round pick. On the surface, that seems like the kind of deal Toronto should be pursuing when it comes to trading Marner, whose most recent disappointing playoff performance has caused much of the fanbase to want to be done with him.

But let’s get this out of the way: no, that’s not enough of a return for Toronto. Yes, this club should be looking to improve their blue line, and yes, Marner is the odd man out when it comes to moving assets in order to gain assets.

But acquiring a defender like Jones is more of a lateral move than a step up. Let me explain why:

Seth Jones Isn’t the Defender the Maple Leafs Need

Having covered the Blackhawks for THW during the 2023-24 regular season, I can tell you multiple things can be true: Jones is a good defenseman, and he is not what Toronto needs.

Let me give the Maple Leaf fans reading this column a quick bullet list of Jones facts:

• Jones averaged over 25 minutes per game last season, four minutes more than the No. 2 player on the Blackhawks in Alex Vlasic, and about five or six minutes more than he should be logging.

• Below average on the power play, logging in over three minutes of ice time a night with the man advantage, but ending up with a whopping nine power-play points in 67 games.

• Not exactly the best defensive defenseman, as he just posted his career-worst even-strength Corsi (46.9 percent), and the five-worst seasons of his career have been … the last five seasons, failing to hit the 50 percent mark.

• The 2024-25 season will be just the third of Jones’ eight-year, $76 million contract that pays him $9.5 million per year. That means he’s tied with the Boston Bruins’ Charlie McAvoy for the fifth-highest salary for a defenseman.

• Jones will turn 30 next October, and while that wouldn’t usually be a factor when it comes to a trade, Jones at 30 is a unique case. After being drafted No. 4 by the Nashville Predators in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, he made the team as an 18-year-old and has played 11 nearly full seasons since then, never missing more than 15 games in a season (which he did this season).

• That means before turning 30, he’s played 797 career regular-season games, including 37 playoff contests. That’s a lot of miles (or kilometres for my fellow Canadians) on a defenseman who has only averaged less than 20 minutes per game in a season twice, and that was when he was 18 and 19 years old, respectively.

Seth Jones’ Trajectory Is Like Another Maple Leaf

Early in the 2023-24 season, Jones was receiving a lot of criticism from fans and those who cover the team, largely because of the lack of offense and, well, he’s usually on the ice when the Blackhawks would get scored on. It reminded me of another in-over-his-head No. 1 defender who played for the Maple Leafs years ago.

Dion Phaneuf, acquired by Toronto in January 2010 and with the club until midway through the 2015-16 season, was asked to play a role he was not suited for right from the get-go. Starting his career with the Calgary Flames, Phaneuf played on the second pair with lots of power-play minutes — it’s no surprise that’s why he thrived.

In Toronto, he was asked to play nearly 25 minutes a night, every night, taking on the power play, penalty kill, and every type of situation, including the kitchen sink. It became too much, and his play would deteriorate as time went on.

That’s what I fear will happen with Jones. There were already signs this past season that he’s taken a step back, and the wear and tear of being a top NHL defenseman is starting to show. I can’t even make the case that he’s a better defender than Morgan Rielly, who the Maple Leafs are already asking too much of.

If you’re looking for a No. 1 defenseman, or at least someone who can provide a safety net for Rielly on the first pair, why would you rely on someone whose best production is similar to Phaneuf’s — on the second pair with a bit of power play?

If the Maple Leafs Don’t Get A Big Return, Just Keep Marner

It’s been two weeks since the Maple Leafs were eliminated by the Bruins in the first round, and some of the takes coming out of the sport have been so scorching hot, that former U.S. vice president Al Gore is warning the masses about their effect on the environment.

I won’t even dignify some of the proposals with mention in this column. A lot of you are either vastly underrating how good Marner is, or you’re ignorant as to how much teams value defensemen in this league. The reason why we seldom see trades with young blueliners is because they’re so damn valuable, that it’s so hard to find an NHL defender who is worth their weight in ice time.

The reason why I brought this one up was because it’s the type of trade Toronto should be looking at, plus it involves the two teams I primarily write about (also shoutout to Brooke LoFurno for the story idea). But it’s not enough of a return for a 90-point, Selke Trophy-nominated player like Marner.

Then again, maybe this is the best they could come up with. Maybe no team will offer the Maple Leafs a top defenseman, and someone like Jones is the only return they could get. If that’s the case, maybe they should just keep him.

I know, I don’t like the idea, either, and I don’t see any value in bringing back the same core again, and again, and again. But making trades for the sake of making trades is for those who play EA Sports’ NHL games, and those who are in the sport and don’t wish to work in it for long. Unless I’m getting a player, or players, that I know will make my club better, I’m not moving one of the best players in Maple Leafs’ franchise history.

Toronto has to be sure that if they trade Marner, they’re bringing in a young, top-four defender that can be a massive upgrade for a blue line starving for talent. If not, there’s no harm in holding onto Marner and seeing if there’s a number of dollars and years you can agree upon in a contract.

It will be a summer of difficult choices for Maple Leafs’ general manager Brad Treliving and president Brendan Shanahan. No one said it had to be a summer of dumb choices.